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The ignorance of the British about the economic structure of their own country and the dramatic changes that have occurred to it over the past fifty years has.
Table of contents
- The status quo
- Everything you might want to know about the UK's trade with the EU
- Accessibility links
- Everything you might want to know about the UK's trade with the EU - Full Fact
- Why the UK trade deficit with the EU is woeful and widening
EU data for both goods and services is only available until , and this shows different figures than data from the UK for the same year. In it changed so that the USA was very slightly ahead.
The status quo
Although fewer of our exports are now going to other EU countries, these exports are still just as important to our economy. The Commission told us that this should have read: We are currently at - please help Full Fact grow. Trade after we leave After the UK leaves the EU, the future rules on trade will depend on what kind of agreement, if any, the UK reaches with the EU after its departure. How much is UK-EU trade worth to each party? In the UK, manufacturing firms are among the most efficient, whereas the services sector operate at below average productivity.
This argument is supported by the data.
Britain runs a surplus in services with the EU and while it has been growing it has not been doing so nearly fast enough to offset a growing deficit in goods, especially manufactured goods. Trade deficits have consequences. The need to finance them means there will be upward pressure on interest rates. Productivity growth, which depends on a thriving manufacturing sector, will be lower than it would otherwise would be.
Workers who lose their jobs in industry will be decanted into low-wage, low-skill sectors.
Everything you might want to know about the UK's trade with the EU
High interest rates, an over-valued currency, a culture of short-termism, poor management and unwillingness to invest in new machinery and skills have all played a part. It would fly in the face of the evidence to suggest that the trade deficit is simply a function of being a member of the single market and the customs union. Equally, it is hard to deny that other countries are doing rather better out of the current trading arrangements. More than two-thirds of the deficit in goods is with the EU. The surplus in services is around a sixth of the deficit in goods. Would we really be gagging to join?
Show Hide Productivity is an economic measure of the efficiency of a workforce. Topics International trade Economics viewpoint. Immediately after the election, Cameron announced he would resign and be replaced by Theresa May. The economic aftermath of the referendum was far worse. The main reasons why people voted to leave the EU dealt with the economy. Europe had been stagnant for the past decade, causing migrant workers to emigrate to the UK for work and displace cheap British labor.
The free movement of labor in the EU seemed at odds with protecting British jobs and British identity. Along with growing income inequality and xenophobia from the terrorism threat in Europe, many parts of the British population blamed the EU as the source of their problems. UK Prime Minister Theresa May formally triggered Article 50 on March 29, , beginning a two-year negotiation process with the European Council about the terms of the withdrawal.
Soft Brexit, on the other hand, means that trade would be governed by the European Economic Area such that the UK would retain membership of the European Single Market, allowing for the free movement of people, capital, goods, and services.
To strengthen her hand in a hard Brexit negotiation, Theresa May called for an early general election on June 8, in hopes of gaining a larger majority of Conservatives in parliament. However, the snap election backfired for May, resulting in a hung parliament with the Conservative Party losing their parliamentary majority. The results of the election mean more uncertainty about Brexit when negotiations start on June 19, The UK could get an extension for the negotiations, but that would require all 27 EU member states to unanimously approve the extension.
This is highly unlikely to happen since the EU has an incentive to make the negotiations as difficult as possible to dissuade other countries from leaving the EU. Nonetheless, the important takeaway from the UK withdrawal negotiations is that much of the contention is primarily surrounded on economic issues.
Everything you might want to know about the UK's trade with the EU - Full Fact
The most important economic policy area regarding the UK and EU is free trade. The end of World War II was marked by an era of globalization. Global trade had grown faster than global output. Between and , global trade tripled while economic output only doubled. Since , the rate of growth in trade has declined but is still outpacing world GDP growth.
- The Economic Impact of Brexit on UK and EU Trade – Richard Chen – Medium.
- UK and the EU: Trade and economy.
There are several causes to increased trade over the last few decades. First, the invention of containerization by Malcolm McLean caused transport costs to fall several orders of magnitude, enabling the efficient shipment of goods between ports across the world. Second, tariffs have fallen steadily due to the emergence of supranational trade partnerships such as the World Trade Organization.
Why the UK trade deficit with the EU is woeful and widening
And third, governments have worked together to reduce non-tariff barriers to trade such as different national regulations and quotas that make it difficult for exporters to penetrate foreign markets. The benefit of free trade rests on the economic principle of comparative advantage. Countries specialize in producing their most cost-efficient goods. Then countries trade their goods among each other such that each country can consume more than it can produce for a lower overall cost.
Note that comparative advantage is not the same thing as absolute advantage. Country A could be less efficient than Country B and producing goods X and Y, but both countries would benefit if each specialized in producing one good and traded with one another. Europe, by itself, has become a regional trading hub. As an EU member, UK companies can sell their goods freely to customers anywhere else in the EU without those customers having to pay additional taxes to import those goods. British consumers and companies can also import from EU member states without tariffs. Much of the Brexit debate has revolved around the implications of Brexit on British trade.
Seven of the top ten trading partners of the UK are EU member states. Out of all industries, the manufacturing and service sectors are the most reliant on trade. Most experts believe that Brexit would hurt British trade. New trade deals would not be expected to make up the difference.