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In this article I look into the many reasons why horse racing 'systems' don't work. The simplicity of these systems is the fact you'll factor in various stats from the.
Table of contents
- Profitable racing system
- You are here
- Easy Life Winners - UK Each-Way Horse Racing Profits System
- Why Horse Racing Systems Don’t Work
Even if the only horse picked came in last in the race, that horse, since it is the only one selected in any live bet in the pool is the winner for the leg of the bet. The same logic applies to the order of finish in a single race, i. The same logic applies if there is no correct winner selected for several legs in the order of finish.
The second, or third, etc, place finisher could, theoretically, be the winner s in every race on the winning ticket, for the purpose of designating the winning ticket.
Since every accepted ticket must have a horse selected in every race or order of finish, there must always be a pool winner s. Another might bet the player who has the greatest number of winners selected, i. As a variation upon the method of selecting the winner described above, a percentage of the payout to a winner who was closest, instead of predicting the winner exactly, could be held out from every sequential pool that did not have an exact winner, and be accumulated until an exact winner was predicted.
The total so accumulated could then be paid out as a bonus to the punter s that first predicted the winner exactly. In that manner a progressively increasing payout could be achieved and there could be an advantage to predicting the winner exactly. The system can know essentially constantly the pari-mutuel payout on every conditionally accepted bet if a bet just placed is the last bet in the current pool.
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An accumulator for each possible permutation of bets can be established and can be set up in a matrix. The amount bet on each permutation, and the total bet across all permutations in the pool need only be constantly up-dated as bets are accepted.
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The total payout is then simply determined from the ratio of the money wagered divided by the money bet on all of the winning tickets, of course subtracting the money for the state, track, horses, etc. However, to be pari-mutuel, the pool must be divided among the players who have the winning tickets, the dollar payout divided among the punters who have winning tickets in the ratio of the money they bet. Odds and payouts can be displayed to the punters to assist the placing of bets for the entire race card. The size chosen for a pool could vary with the size of the volume expected on a bet type for the race.
It could be larger when a larger betting volume was anticipated and less when a smaller one was expected. But, of course, pool size could and probably would be kept constant at the same track for the same bet type in order to maintain consistency. Setting a known pool size and closing the pool when that size is reached is a key feature of the system.
Because if the eventual size of the pool is known, along with the amount bet on a given entry, the exact current odds can be known on any entry.
Profitable racing system
Furthermore, the payout on any specific bet can also be known, if the bet is accepted, from the ratio of the size of the bet to the sum of all bets on the same entry. If a pool is not completed, all bets are returned from that pool when betting is closed. This is similar to the rapid changing of prices for the same security in financial markets as short-time demand changes, but nothing has changed in the announced underlying value of the entity that the security represents. The pools could each be set to close when they have received a set amount wagered.
As the number of bets accepted in a poll is reduced compared to the number of potential pool outcomes, the probability of receiving an exact winning bet tends to decrease. It therefore becomes less advantageous to make multiple unit wagers in the same pool as the likelihood of a permutation being unique increases, and so there is no advantage in betting a larger amount on a winning unique permutation because the payout is fixed.
Of course, making multiple bets on the same permutation in a single pool will result in the punter receiving a larger percentage of a potential payout if the permutation wins, albeit at lower odds on each bet.
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It appears that a better strategy is to bet larger bet amounts by placing sequential wagers in the successive pools, although the punter will not know with certainty what odds will be available in subsequent pools. Having multiple pools also induces punters to bet in a more uniform manner over time instead of at the latest possible betting time just before the start of the first race in a bet, when the pool odds are better known, as in conventional single pari-mutuel pools. This is because each pool will have its own odds; the odds in subsequent pools might be lower.
Since the pools are small, and they close without warning, waiting will often result in being unable to get a bet accepted in a pool, or the desired bet total from wagers in multiple pools. Placing only unit bets tends to be standard behavior, at least in the case of large payout exotic pools, much like single selections in a lottery. Bets up to a limit set by the punter can be automatically entered to sequential pools to assist bet placement. As each bet is accepted, it is recorded and the amount bet on the entry is accumulated in a matrix covering all of the potential combinations for the number of races and the number of entries in each race.
For example, if there are 6 races with 10 horses in each race, there are 10 to the 6 th combinations. Considering that many entries will be included in multiple bets some horses will have more support than the average, the number of entries without support will increase even more. The method and system of the invention guarantees that there will always be a pari-mutuel winner.
Consider the case that the bets are constrained to a single unit size, say one dollar. In this case it becomes somewhat less desirable to make bets larger than one unit as the punter will receive back, if successful, less payout per bet. Therefore a punter can be allowed to designate a wager as a limit bet, which means that if the bet is accepted and successful, the bet will payout at the limit, or higher. All bets could be designated as market or limit when placed or all bets could be market bets if not designated as limit bets or visa-versa. Market bets that up the pool total are always accepted.
Market bets can have priority over limit bets regardless of the order of receipt.
Easy Life Winners - UK Each-Way Horse Racing Profits System
Limit bets at the same limit can have priority based upon the order of receipt. Limit bets with lower limits can have priority over higher limit bets, regardless of order of receipt. It is possible therefore that a lower limit bet placed after a higher limit bet will cause the higher limit one to no longer be within its limits and be removed from the pool, but when the higher limit bet is removed, the lower limit bet will still be in the money at the limit of the higher limit bet whose limit caused its own removal from the pool.
While this rule may seem complicated it is entirely logical and will generally not be consideration in placing bets, except by sophisticated punters, who seek small edges, as they do in all but the simplest, most automatic forms of wagering. Horse wagering lends itself to a great deal of analysis and sophistication and this wrinkle accommodates that, for those who are so inclined. Note also that this system encourages betting early in the pool because early betting provides greater assurance that a bet will be accepted as the punter does not know when the pool will close.
The pools will be identified by race or group of races and pool number. A new pool opens immediately after one closes so there is always a pool to bet in to, until shortly before the race starts. To encourage punters to bet early in a pool, so realistic odds will be available soon after a pool opens, it might be desirable to allow the first group of punters making bets e. The standard rules of bet replacement, described above, can be applied for the new market bet, which may also be permitted to keep the priority provided by the receipt time of its initial entry as a market order at its newly entered limit.
This feature allows the early punter to get more data at a later point in time, the reason that punters wait until later to place a bet, and the pool will not lose any bets because a bet can only go out of the money if it is replaced by a later limit bet in the money. This early priority and later opportunity to set a limit is a great advantage and is expected to encourage very heavy early wagering, stabilizing pool odds rapidly.
Why Horse Racing Systems Don’t Work
This feature is an optional system characteristic. The combination of multiple pools, limit orders and early betting preferences allows punters heretofore unavailable scope for intelligently selecting horses based upon the odds that will be offered and the flexibility to use that information for great advantage.
This system makes horse race wagering a more analytic sport. In this system, with its fixed pool sizes, the making of bets larger than one unit is of dubious value. While the punter's share of a winning pool will increase as his percentage of the winning amount bet increases, since the total winning payout remains the same, the odds on each of the punter's bets decreases. Therefore, the only way for a punter to increase winnings without reducing the odds on an individual bet is to make the same bet selection in multiple pools, which the system of the invention allows and can even accommodate in an automatic mode by entering identical bets up to a preset limit in sequential pools.
One method for allowing bets of variable sizes without decreasing the odds received is for the system to permit fractional bets that have to be accumulated up to the unit bet size before the system will accept them. For example, the system could allow decimal fractional bets and accumulate fractional bets until the total equaled a single unit bet, which would then be entered into the pool. This is similar to how odd-lot stock sales are made. Any fraction of a unit left over could be rejected, or be accumulated over all of the pools and be added into the pool open at the time it becomes a full unit, with any fraction remaining discarded when betting on the last pool in the race s closes.
It is also possible for the system and method to include the partial bet left over if desired. Such a feature works in the following manner. To this must be added the amount of the leftover fraction that is being included in the pool. There are three cases of interest to consider on payout: Consider the payout cases in order. If only fractional bets win, the winning fractional bets are only entitled to receive that fraction of the payout that their bets represent.
If there are unit bet and fractional bet winners, the winning payout is divided into portions equal to that of a single smallest fraction, and then each winner is paid out that portion multiplied by the number of unit fractions it equals. The present invention is described with reference to methods, apparatuses i. This invention may, however, be embodied in many different forms and should not be construed as limiting to the embodiments set forth herein; rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the scope of the invention to those skilled in the art.
It will be understood that each step of the method, and accommodations for each step of the method, respectively, can be implemented by computer program instructions. If everyone is doing the same thing, the prices on the selected horses would collapse, and all the profit that used to be had has now gone!
The system is now useless. The statistic that many systems will use is the form — which shows where a horse has finished in the last so many races. For example, a horse might have next to its name, signifying it finished third, unplaced and second in its last three outings. From this you have no idea the quality of the opposition, no idea how many runners it was up against, no idea the distance the race was run over, no idea whether the ground was firm or soft and no idea if anything affected the running, such as an injury — basically this stat gives you no idea!
However many systems will use this stat as the most important. Another system might use the amount of time a horse has between races as a factor. A horse may have been off the track for sixty days, but what does this tell us? Whichever stat you input into a system is basically meaningless without knowing the bigger picture.
Also provided in the purchase is a nice spreadsheet package that makes the staking options devilishly simple. Impressive stuff, considering the risk to the bank is minimal! This can of course work the other way with the selection occasionally going against the grain and drifting out. Using the spreadsheet supplied the method explains how to remove yourself from any potentially dangerous situation meaning that you will take a loss albeit a modest one that wont have you losing sleep. If you do this, you will have to take whatever price is offered at that time, which clearly may not be the most profitable time to lay the selection off.
This may be too variable for most, and unless you are very time aware which I am not , you could miss your opportunity and potentially miss placing your lay trade completely. Taking lay prices nearer to the off is preferred as you will be better placed to avoid situations where non-runners are declared. One thing I did notice on occasion was that the weight of money available at the time of placing your lay stake on Betfair may not be sufficient to ensure you are fully matched, and you could find that getting out of a trade means your lay stake is spread over a range of increasing prices.
This scenario , could wipe out any profit you may have taken had the single price offered had sufficient money behind it to cover all of your back bet in the first place. Alternatively, you wait until there is more liquidity in that particular race — closer to the start, taking a further chance that the price moves in your favour or possibly further against you. The only thing that I can see being the real gamble with this method is the selection process itself. For this review I achieved the following results as shown below:.
Trades complete prior to racing starts — comfort knowing that your position is covered regardless of the outcome of the race, 4.