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Table of contents
- Search Garth’s Blog
- Similar authors to follow
- What pig? — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
Every legally working Canadian citizen has a DB pension plan. It is called the CPP. Could not agree more. And there are also a lot of temporary workers on construction sites. When that slows down numbers released today that appear to support it they will also be out of the equation. It feels like the calm before the storm right now. But one has a sense that change is on the way. Garth you are posting earlier these days. I guess limited mobility getting the creative juices flowing. People from Oregon used to complain bitterly about Californians moving in and driving up prices.
People in San Francisco are ready to riot over Silicon Valley kiddies driving up their prices. People on Vancouver Island complain about Albertans and Easterners retiring there and driving up prices. Asian immigrants are good for Canada and we will continue to benefit from their industry and international connections. I think what people are afraid of is the kind of investor, wherever they come from, who just uses Canada as a long term piggy bank like the people who bought these properties in London, England. I usually keep away from politics, but I honestly think that F and the lot will try to keep everything afloat just until the next election.
Just curious, but how many times were you rejected by the civil service? You would go far…. What can you possibly do? What can anyone do? That leader was a ThematicChallenge? I wanted to see if that might be from other than 1 low interest rates 2 attempts to get capital gains in the absence of yield. I looked at Federal Debt to GDP, Loans to Private Sector, Balance of Trade and Import Prices and what stood out was that 2 of the 3 sectors Goverment and Trade are spending less into the economy spending in one sector is income to another and so it is the remaining 3rd private sector that is engaged in positive spending income to the other 2 BUT the private sector spending is happening via leverage not production.
I put together the chart mashups here: I think immigration should be reduced or stopped until our unemployment rate falls to an acceptable level. Some humanitarian refuges only, and maybe fields where we are actually short like health care. Your example a few weeks ago with the 32 offers for the one home is a prime example. Those useless posts are from immature idiots. Is it true that declaring bankruptcy in Canada allows an individual to keep most of their property and be on the hook for a small percentage of debt owing?
This might be an interesting topic to broach. I have a friend who declared bankruptcy a few years ago and their student debt got wiped out and they were able to keep all the things that got them into bankruptcy to begin with. Actually , I prefer to work for a living. The Conservatives, however, feel that other, newer economic-immigrant programs are doing a better job of attracting newcomers who will integrate well into Canadian society and build the economic base. These include the Canadian Experience Class, which fast-tracks residency for temporary foreign workers already in Canada and non-Canadians who have graduated from universities and colleges here.
Not hard to see what's going here. What about grandma and grandpa? They get fast-tracked even faster. Oh and that language test part. They got apps that give newcomers the most up-to-date answers. What the government says and does are two different things. Everything else is meant to divert the public. Generally the Canadian economy lags the US by about two years, the US market crashed eight years ago. Oil prices are much lower now and likely will head lower yet.
Please people in finance explain how the risk of DFN. Caption of a New Yorker cartoon: There are many ways to come up with your down payment. The most obvious way, of course, is Saving. Investing in real estate can be a good way for them and you! We have a lot of people sitting around. Once we are competitive again unemployment should go down and we can allow immigration once again to supply the market.
For now, all immigration is doing is supplying excess workers to a depressed market and restraining wages. I used to work downtown, and the cleaning staff was completely foreign. Actually, most Canadians would say no I guess.
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I think the Harper boys are sensing the anti immigration mood in the country and are closing the most apalling loopholes. The graph provides the more likely reason. Last year they measured it low and created a dip. This year they measured it correct or high and we see this impossible jump. Next consider that we have now waited six years for the American house price crash and debt level crash to come to Canada.
It may be time to consider if it was different in America, where sub-prime lands and liar loans really were a LOT more prevalent. It now may be time to admit that the two lines on the graph will converge more so by the U. I mean what else should debt to income do but rise when interest rates hit rock bottom? Prices of loans fall, demand for them rises. I also notice that the graph scale does not start at zero. The popular way to interpret it has failed to materialize for six years now.
Mark Hanson says that stimulus programs have had a profoundly negative effect on American housing. I mean that the Federal Government probably has a few special cases where it holds a mortgage on a property. I will stake my vast reputation that there will be nothing in the budget tomorrow that puts the Federal Government into consumer mortgages. Less the wonderful work of the front line workers of course of which I used to be. Most are useless paper pushers robbing the general public everyday.
So, is the next buyer making up the difference with: CPI is not an accurate measure of what average families spend their money on.
Search Garth’s Blog
Let me see — news said Canadians are borrowering more but delinquency rates are down — said another way — people are borrowing to keep their debts current…sorry to restate the obvious Equifax. Agree, any graph can be manipulated on the y-axis. In Economics , we used to call it Grafs and Lafs. Hopefully, the end of this program significantly stems the tide of corrupt money flowing into real estate in Canada, and in particular, the Lower Mainland. And by the way………Garth IS a true public servant. Public service used to be just that…..
Similar authors to follow
Someone mentioned this deal last week, we can call it an aberration. It is an aberration because the recent trend in Leaside is thousand over list, this took A quarter million over list:. A bungalow 30X lot. I think that a good amount of the current crop of men of varying generations just do not have the same incentive and opportunity to get into the move-in-and-move-up-every-decade cycle. Just look at the marriage rate that has dropped steadily and significantly for several decades as well as somewhat extended the age bracket at which people get married.
I believe that the more things change the more they stay the same but I think current men are facing a somewhat different relationship environment and—at the risk of sounding gauche or politically incorrect—female species than the Boomers. For us HAM believers, we need to recognize that the investor immigrant program is only one of the ways money is coming into Canada. Three others to consider: I am hopeful that putting an end to the investor class immigrant will go a long way in helping to correct this over-heated Vancouver market, however, we still need to remember that there are no restrictions on foreign ownership of Canadian real estate.
The Globe did a piece about desperate and shameless couples demanding cash wedding gifts to cover their expenses. These couples were buckling under the pressure of rising expectations for what should be offered at a wedding, and so ended up spending the big day dreading the final bill sad, when it should be the happiest day of their lives. Zero cents on the dollar for the photo booth or the chocolate fondue fountain or the open bar for your closest friends.
That student, Moray Watson, is an accountant who says he is an opponent of Islamic extremism and enrolled in the course partly to test the prerequisite in the syllabus. At peak, both Canada and the US had have similar average household incomes with income distribution not too far apart, and similar home prices and homeownership levels. How could that translate to them having vastly more subprime loans than we do? We did 0 down 40s. Mortgage brokers complain on industry blogs about credit tightening, more income verification and stricter appraisals.
Why all that if we were lending conservatively before? They talk about doing more subprime deals today, and even second mortgages. If a market rises long enough, it covers up all these sins, but if the music stops or unemployment blips up, the corpses in the loan portfolios start floating to the top. Can anybody out there explain what the deal is? Is this some kind of reversion to some mean? Garth, from what I understand mortgage interest in the US is tax deductible.
What would you estimate the normalizing factor to make Canadian and US debt levels more comparable given the deductibility of US mortgage interest and the associated toys bought on LOCs. I would think such a normalizing factor pushes Canadian debt levels above those of the US prior to the economic meltdown of Evictions have nearly tippled in Kitchener-Waterloo these last few months.
Why do you think that is? Read small letters on GIC contract. Other vanilla GICs are possible to cash, like bonds , based on circumstances. It is possible to cash out fixed GICs, you may lose principal, but get ful interest, just like sale of bonds before maturity. Maturity day market growth, not accumulated growth of the market. Very different from other typr of market investing. It is never a good deal even if you get the most possible return. I will agree that now is not the the time to buy real estate.
But if you bought 30 years ago? Sure it is a good time to sell… then what? Forever at other times. Tiny sq Bug with finished basement for off spring paying rent Kids read Adults in basement Maybe working together with the kids is a solution in these new times.
Their RE market still crashed. We also received plenty of immigrant in the later 80s and early 90s. Our RE crashed at that time. So I am assuming that since all the underlying equities Dividend 15 owns pay dividends in the 3. So you are really getting repayment of your original investment or return of capital appreciation as part of your distribution. Plus, in their annual report for the management expense ratio for the last 5 years has been between 1. Could be wrong here as I just took a quick look at the Dividend 15 annual report.
But seems to make sense given its just a basket of TSX dividend payers. There is a probability that the housing market in Canada is fairly valued and will continue to chug higher. I see the probable downside risks of Canadian RE much higher than many other investments, so am on the RE sidelines. Rates arent going to rise much more. Equities will eventually pullback big and investors will flock to bonds. Do you really think that US stocks can keeping shooting to the moon? You resent not feeling superior. Stay tuned folks more news coming down the pipe. This does not bode well for Vancouver.
It seems Dad Nostradamus Jr. However, currency manipulation may be playing a small part as well. The Thames is flooding Egham and another town, Staines which is west of central London. Staines is just 2. Elevation of Staines 18m. Garth, dig deeper into your data. Not some college grads. Is there anyway to close some loopholes in Toronto and rid ourselves of a fat, ignorant, crack-smoking temporary worker from the foreign land of Etobicoke?
Yeah yeah I know its about jealousy but still worth a read http: Take this from someone with considerable experience in financial compliance, stay away from market-linked GICs unless you know what you are doing. These products are rated high risk and you pay a pretty penny to own them. You must watch the new immigration policies being changed by the CPC with extreme caution. Hey Folks, Alberta is definitely slowing down in a bad way, and some houses here are underwater already.
Low downpayment, slack lending standards, and two starry eyed kids are sure hooped right now. Their credit will be destroyed for years. Sucks to be them. Watch out, listings in Vancouver are about to explode with the announcement of the end of the program. SHTF is a coming. Has nothing of substance to offer so he resorts to childish taunting and picking on typing errors with what he believes is his razor sharp wit.
I have some news for you pimple err I mean Temple. Therefore, if they were to leave, they would literally cost us money plus the spot they used for that degree throughout that time. Surely someone who comes here to study hard sometimes harder and wants to stay and work deserves a chance to contribute to society.
What is less Canadian than that? And this is why we are in trouble. Misleading stats from a profession of real estate pumpers. The missing information rom your post is:. By this your scenario, this person may never pay off the mortgage is they continue getting a new 30year mortgage every time rates go up. Considers it money earned, like a dividend. Did food go up that much? Nuttall Published February 4, The federal Opposition Critic for Employment and Social Development says more policing of immigration consultants is needed after a Tyee series on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program exposed abuse of would-be immigrants by such organizations.
Oilsands jobs being taken by temp foreign workers, union saysCBC. Ironworkers replaced with TFWs still not rehired Despite promises to rehire Canadians who were replaced by foreign workers last week, Pacer Promec Joint Venture still has not offered the affected workers their jobs back. Suncor begins testing automated trucks Fort McMurray Todaywww. Taxpayer Alert describes certain complex highly structured investment products that seek, amongst other things, to transfer franking credits.
These products claim to offer investors the taxpayers exposure to a portfolio of listed securities and the benefit of franking credits whilst using a derivative instrument to effectively transfer the risk of investing in those securities from investors to the derivative counterparty. Imputation benefits including franking credits may attach to distributions paid by a company. An important principle underlying the imputation system is that imputation benefits should only be available to the true economic owners of the company http: On or after this point, the stock trades without its dividend rights.
The point about people bailing on their investments and cashing out is valid. Easy come, easy go. As always you make good points. A lot more separation between the borrower and the funder of the mortgage occurred and still occurs.
What pig? — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate
As far as five year rates are teaser, yes those could increase. But in the U. They also has interest-only mortgages. To be clear I take no particular position on home prices in Canada. If interest rates rise a bit the Canadian debt to income line must come down. But if interest rates remain low the American debt to income line will likely rise. Wow, that was embarrassing to read. Which brokerage do you work for, so I can know never to do business with them?
Just buy yourself a Cnd dividend ETF. This one looks more like a hedge fund where manager is guaranteed returns and investors foot the bill. Interest rates have to go up making it impossible for the over extended to pay their bills. And even then, there will be a time lag while credit cards are maxed out and new cards are obtained to pay the minimum monthlys on the old ones.
I have seen it happen. And if they have fixed mortgages, it could be years before the three percenters are reset. Garth, Your post today should be about the federal budget — break it down for the little guy and what it has in store for the wallet of the average Canadian. Yeah I know that the firm takes profit.
However considering the good returns in the last 10 years I thought it might be ok. For my dividend I will stick with my BBO etf. Your essential and incorrect meaning is that teachers are overpaid, i. I bet no one will oppose the political trend, kanatians were not even capable of a revolt years ago. The Upper Canada Rebellion was an insurrection against the oligarchic government of the British colony of Upper Canada present day Ontario in December I realize this is not a political blog so Garth may not wish to post the following.
I do think this should of concern to all Canadians. Finally… about time they found out the math did not add up with that type of program in place. But even at the peak, most homes were either paid off or financed by a prime fixed rate or 30 year loan. Look at prime vs. Canada had interest only loans: When CMHC was insuring 0 down 40s, the first ten years were allowed to be interest only. This is a great story: Note how small the numbers look, and that he got a decent two storey in suburban Washington.
Americans should be rushing to borrow more when they can lock in 30 year rates at near record lows. And when their house prices in many areas are still cheap. They should, they can, and I suspect they will. Watch for an uptick in American mortgage debt to income. Spoken like a Canadian. Actually the busiest US mortgage activity is with refis, which is intensely rate-sensitive. It is different in Alberta.
I hear in other parts of the country it can variously stand for Hot Asiatic Money. By the way, H. Clinton is to be a Calgary visiter. Now it is pay to play time on the east side of the Rockies, oh say to 1, ft above sea level. I am so glad the P. Stand by for orders. The other subprime crisis that nobody is talking about:. Canadian banks hit accelerator on U. Plan on buying a new car or truck? There's going to be a flood of inventory as GM et al stuff dealers with loads of inventory, forcing dealers to liquidate lots at discounted prices over the next year or so.
That red line on the chart is definitely losing steam…. You also forget that they pay a hefty sum into their pension plans, and that their sick leave benefits have been under attack. I would tend to agree with you, but then there is the variable of the Wynnut. Actually no variable at all. If she wyins Ontario, every man, woman, child and dog is doomed. Her and her tree hugging followers believe money comes falls from trees, anti business, pro Union far left of the NDP.
She will give what ever teachers and unions demand. Sabotages his own party over and over. Does not know how or refuse to capitalize on the Tree huggers mistakes. No one, even when trying to be that stupid is that stupid. Under free trade we can move our business anywhere in North America faster than a rainbow flag can get hoisted at City Hall.
The same will happen with real estate. Harpo et al have been successful in destroying most of the middle class, and now F is puffing up to HELP the same people his policies destroyed. Typical smoke and mirrors. In the meantime, hang on to your wallet. So WHY did she take the time to apologize? There's a problem loading this menu right now. Get fast, free shipping with Amazon Prime.
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