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To these he added Italy , a new nation on the verge of great power status within Europe. Bismarck's chosen path is not easy, particularly since Austria-Hungary and Russia have conflicting spheres of interest in the unstable Balkans. As a result, while Austria-Hungary and Italy remain constant allies the three nations become known from as the Central Powers of Europe , Bismarck is constantly having to patch up or renew the alliance with Russia under the pressure of international events. The careful edifice crumbles after Bismarck's dismissal in The new Kaiser , recognizing the incompatibility of Russia and Austria-Hungary as allies, breaks off the alliance with Russia.

As a result Russia and France, both equally alarmed by Germany, begin secret negotiations - which result in the Franco-Russian alliance of Then, even more surprisingly, in France and Britain agree an unprecedented Entente Cordiale. Austria-Hungary, a declining power, and the relatively weak Italy now seem to be Germany's only probable allies in a European conflict. And by this time many, particularly in Germany, feel that such a conflict cannot be far in the future. All the major nations have been preparing for such an eventuality, but Germany has done so in the most deliberate fashion.


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The strategic drift towards war: A popular buzz-word in Germany at this time is Weltpolitik 'world politics' , meaning that the nation must assert itself on the international stage in order to claim its 'place in the sun' another current phrase. To this end much pride is placed in the plan devised by Admiral von Tirpitz to provide the nation with a High Seas Fleet to match the naval forces of Britain.

Tirpitz's demands on the Reichstag escalate in the inexorable pattern of any arms race. In he persuades the politicians to pass a Navy Law providing for a fleet of 16 battleships. Two years later a new Navy Law revises the figure to 38 battleships, with a completion date of for the full fleet. This level will still be below that of the British navy, but Tirpitz argues that it will provide Germany with a Risikoflotte 'risk fleet' , meaning one too dangerous for Britain to attack. Britain radically upsets the calculation by introducing in a vastly more powerful class of battleship, the first of the famous 'dreadnoughts'.

Germany follows suit, upgrading its production line to the new standard. To the German argument that Britain is escalating the stakes, Winston Churchill when first lord of the admiralty in replies that for an island nation a powerful navy is a defensive necessity, whereas to Germany it is 'more in the nature of a luxury'. Meanwhile the German strategy for the army in the event of war is both more secret and more illicit.

It is the work of Alfred von Schlieffen, chief of the general staff from to During the second half of the s, when France and Russia are in alliance and it is accepted that a war must be fought on both fronts, Schlieffen devises a two-stage plan.

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A massive and rapid flanking attack will be made on France from the north, through Belgium in total disregard of Belgium's neutrality , while a relatively light force holds at bay the Russians - who are likely to be slower in their mobilization. France will then be defeated in time to redirect the full German might against Russia.


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In December the emperor William II and his military advisers hold a secret meeting in which they discuss the possible launch of a preventive war, on the basis of the Schlieffen Plan, to protect Germany's interests. Tirpitz argues for delay to give him more time to build up the fleet. His view prevails, but it is agreed that it will be essential to wait for not much more than two years.

In the Reichstag passes a bill to increase the size of Germany's peacetime army, with a target of , men by the autumn of The other four players in this dangerous game are also now following suit. There is no evident reason for war.

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But policy, as if by stealth, seems to be making it inevitable. The flashpoint comes in Bosnia on 28 June , when a Serbian nationalist assassinates the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary.

The First Gulf War

This is a highly dramatic event, though less unusual then than now since the turn of the century assassins have claimed the lives of a president of the USA , a king of Portugal and a king of Greece. But it is certainly not due cause for a world war. The mere five weeks between the shot fired in Sarajevo by Gavrilo Princip and the first declaration of war between the major powers demonstrates vividly the tangle in which Europe's statesmen have tied themselves.

The first reaction to the outrage at Sarajevo is from Vienna.